New official figures showing inflation at 60% have turned the Iranian streets into a tinderbox just as the USS Abraham Lincoln arrives in the region. The Iranian government is bracing for what social scientists call a “stomach revolution,” where the high cost of living becomes a more potent motivator for regime change than political ideology. Washington appears to be timing its military maneuvers to exploit this economic desperation, hoping to draw the angered public back into the streets.
Ali Larijani has characterized the unrest as a “form of warfare” designed to destroy social cohesion, but the government’s own failure to manage the economy is its greatest vulnerability. As the stock market suffers record falls, the clerical leadership is finding it impossible to project a sense of stability. The government is bracing for a strike that would likely target the central bank and financial ministries to push the already “shattered” economy over the edge.
The human rights activists reporting massive death tolls suggest that the regime’s only answer to the economic crisis is further brutality. However, the presence of the U.S. carrier group in the Mediterranean provides a nearby deterrent that may encourage military defections if a strike begins. The Iranian government is bracing for a scenario where the combination of hunger and high-tech missiles proves too much for their security forces to handle.
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