President Donald Trump arrives in the Middle East to champion a ceasefire, but the agreement is built on a foundation of unresolved issues that could easily cause its collapse. While the initial hostage exchange provides a glimmer of hope, the deal’s long-term survival is threatened by fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas.
The most significant unresolved issue is Israel’s demand for the complete disarmament of Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been adamant that this is a non-negotiable war aim. Hamas, however, is highly unlikely to voluntarily surrender its weapons, which it views as its source of power and leverage. This single issue represents a potential deadlock that could halt all further progress.
Secondly, there is no agreed-upon plan for the post-war governance of Gaza. Who will administer the territory, provide security, and oversee reconstruction? Without a clear answer, a power vacuum could emerge, leading to chaos or an eventual return to Hamas control, which is unacceptable to Israel.
Thirdly, the monumental task of rebuilding Gaza requires billions of dollars, but the funding is not yet secured. While Trump expects wealthy Arab nations to pay, their contributions may be contingent on a political roadmap that does not yet exist. This creates a chicken-and-egg problem where reconstruction depends on a political solution, and a political solution may depend on the promise of reconstruction.
Because these core issues were deferred to get a deal on hostages, the current truce is best described as a temporary cessation of hostilities rather than a comprehensive peace plan. Trump’s diplomatic challenge is to use this pause to forge consensus on these explosive topics before the truce’s fragile foundations give way.
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